CLIMATE CHANGE IN EURASION ARCTIC SHELF SEAS

Centennial Ice Cover Observations

Ivan E. Frolov, Zalman M. Gudkovich, Valery P. Karklin, Evgeny G. Kovalev and Vasily M. Smolyanitsky

Recent predictions of global warming have projected a significant decrease of the ice-spreading area in the Arctic, prophesying its complete disappearance by the end of the 21st century. However, these forecasts are based on the significant decrease in the ice cover area in the Arctic Seas only over the last 15-20 years.

Climate Change in Eurasian Arctic Shelf Seas provides data from analyses of climatic changes in the Arctic and fluctuations of the sea-ice extent over an 80-100 year period, and this shows that there is no unambiguous proof of the future state of the ice cover in the Arctic.

This book:

examines spatial and temporal special features of the constituents of the Arctic climate system;
discusses in detail the different parameters of the Arctic climate system;
proves the importance of natural climatic changes induced by internal and external causes;
demonstrates that the Arctic sea ice cover is unlikely to disappear during the next few decades;
predicts future changes of air temperature and ice cover area in the form of cyclic variations;
refutes predictions of progressive global warming due to anthropogenic causes of climatic changes.

Table of Contents

Preface
List of figures
List of tables
List of abbreviations and acronyms
Introduction

Arctic sea ice as an element of the global climate system
Long-term changes in Arctic Seas ice extent during the twentieth century
Variability of sea ice thickness and concentration in the twentieth century
Consistency among sea ice extent and atmospheric and hydrospheric processes
Possible causes in climate and in Arctic Seas ice extent
Assessment of possible changes in air temperature and sea-ice extent in the Arctic Seas in the twenty-first century
Conclusions

Appendices
A. Mean monthly ice index values in April and August for the Eurasian Arctic Seas for 1900-2008
B. Mean annual surface air temperature (SAT) in the zone from 70-85oN for 1900-2007
C. Mean annual zonality index in the atmosphere of the zone from 40-65oN for 1900-2007

References

Extent: 184 pages, 8-page colour section
Binding: Hardback
Published: 2009
ISBN: 978-3-540-85874-4

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