APOCALYPSE WHEN?

Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive

Willard Wells

But how near the end are we? How much is our ever-increasing exposure to manmade hazards putting us at risk? What chance has the human race got for survival?

In Apocalypse When? Willard Wells takes the laws of probability as the foundation for his carefully worked out formula for human survival. Using common examples - stage shows and businesses - he shows how their survival resembles humanity's.

What do they have in common?

All are aggregates of individuals, each of whom can be replaced
These individuals have mixed interests, both group and personal
None of the three (species, firms, shows) has a fixed expiration age
All are exposed to many diverse hazards.

Anticipating the controversy that his theory is bound to attract, the author gives many examples and an in-depth explanation which thoroughly answers the critics and provides a convincing counter-argument to the current doomsday argument.

Table of Contents

Preface
Acknowledgments
List of figures
List of pictures
List of tables
List of algebraic symbols
List of abbreviations and acronyms
About the author
Introduction

Formulation
Confirmation
Double jeopardy
Human survivability
Apocalypse how?

Appendices
A. Survival formula derived from hazard rates
B. Posterior survivability
C. Infinite mean duration
D. Survival predictor from Bayes’ theory
E. Stage productions running on specified dates
F. Extinction rates of prehistoric taxa
G. Disaggregated mortality
H. Stage productions with dual cum-risks
I. Overall plan for survivability calculation
J. Multiple hazards
K. Cum-risks for man-made hazards
L. Statistical weights for hazards
M. Extinction thwarted by civilization’s collapse
N. Initial hazard rates

References
Index

Extent: 240 pages
Binding: Paperback
Published: 2009
ISBN: 978-0-387-09836-4

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